In this video, I’m going to teach you a very
simple set and forget football betting strategy that you can take away and start making money
from literally as soon as you finish this video. The fantastic thing about this strategy is
not only is it really simple and requires very little effort to implement, but it actually
gives you amazing and consistent results. And if you stick around until the end of the
video, I’m also going to walk you through a live trade so that you can see what this
looks like in the live markets, rather than just giving you the theory. But before we get into the detail, please
remember to subscribe to the channel and hit the bell so that you get all of the notifications
and updates as and when I upload new strategies and tips and tricks on how to go about trading
these wonderful markets, these football markets. I’ve been trading the financial markets for
probably about the last 15 years now, and the football markets for about the last three
years. And I can tell you that the strategy I’m about
to show you is pretty much as simple as they come. So, you’re going to absolutely love what I
have in store for you. Now this strategy is one that you will use
at half time between two teams that are drawing or tying. So, the score’s going to be nil-nil, one-one,
two-two, something like that. Neither team is winning the game, and what
you’re going to want is for a particularly strong team to be playing at home against
a fairly weak team that struggles to win on the road. And you’ll find plenty of examples of these
games that play each and every week. And if you want to know how you go about deciphering
that, there are three primary things that you’re going to look at. So, the first thing is that you’ll look at
the league table. You want the strong team to be significantly
higher than the weaker team in the league table. Typically, you want the strong team to be
towards the top of the table and the weaker team to be at least the middle of the table,
and perhaps even below that. You’ll then want to look at the form of the
teams. So, you want to see that the strong team has
pretty much won every single game at home in the past six home games. Maybe they’ve had one draw, one loss, but
what you want to see is at least four to five out of the last six games will have been home
wins for the team that’s playing at home. And then, what you want to see is that the
team that’s playing away, so the weaker team, will struggle to win away. So, they’ll probably have maybe a few drawers
here and there, a couple of losses, but certainly they won’t be dominant away from home. They’ll struggle to get a result away from
home. And the third thing that you can look at is
things like how they perform against similar teams. You want to see what their results are against
teams that are in similar positions in the table. Because what you can sometimes get is you
can get teams that are playing each other that tend to perform well against teams of
that sort of caliber. For example, you might get a team that is
low down in the table, but somehow they managed to get a result against the bigger teams. It might be the way that they set up a game
or something like that. Or you’ll get to team towards the top of the
table, like an Arsenal, for example, they’re not towards the top of the table, but you
know what I mean. So, a fairly strong-ish team, but they struggle
to really get results. They aren’t really reliable in their results
against teams that are lower down in the table. And you’re going to see instances of that
all over the place. What you’ll want to see is the strong team
playing at home that is very strong base. They get good results and they get good results
consistently. And then the weaker team, they may win at
home, but when they’re away from home, they struggle. So, there’ll be having draws and a couple
of losses and things like that. But, as I said, there’ll be by no means dominant. Now once we have that information, once we’ve
seen what they can do from a pre-match perspective, and we’re looking at them at half time, we
then need to take a look at the in-play statistics. And what you’re going to want to see from
the in-play statistics is that the home team, the stronger team, is really dominant. So, they’re in a position where somehow they’re
drawing the game, but they don’t deserve to be drawing. Really, they should be winning by a one or
two goal margin. And typically, you can look at things like
the possession stats for this. So, you might see that the stronger team has
got at least 55 to 60% of the possession. They’ve certainly had more of the attacks,
the dangerous attacks and things like that. The stronger team at home will be winning
and dominating there. And then in terms of goal attempts, whether
it be on target or off target, you want to see that the stronger team that are playing
at home really are dominating that statistic as well. And you may find that the away team is doing
a little bit, but really, it’s better if you see that the away team is just camped out
in their own box, they aren’t really having that many dangerous attacks, they’re happy
to give up possession, and they aren’t really having that many shots on goal. You see, we need all of this to go together
in order for us to look to put on our trade. Now, once we’ve looked at this statistics,
so we’ve looked at the pre-match statistics, we can see that the team that’s are playing
at home are strong and their form is good. They’re winning at home. The team that are away struggle away from
home. We look at the in-play statistics and we can
see that the stronger team, ultimately, are dominating. They’ve got 60% possession, for example, or
at least 55% possession. They’re dominating in terms of the attacks,
they’re dominating in terms of the shots. And if we can have it, then the weaker team
won’t really be doing much at all. So, they won’t have that many shots on or
off target. They won’t have that many attacks. And you’ll just look at the in-play statistics
to see that the stronger team, the team that you expect to be winning the game is in control
but, for some reason, they haven’t taken the lead at that moment. Once you see that information, you’ve got
that criteria and all of that’s been met, then you can go and put on the bet. And, as I said, this is something that you
can use from a set and forget perspective. So, this is like a bet, a binary outcome. You’re going to put it on and you’re going
to walk away. There are ways that you can manage this, and
that’s something that I’ll talk about on another video, if you wanted to trade this more than
put an outright bet, but I’m putting this video together here for those of you that
really don’t have the time to do that and don’t want to do that, you just want to know
how to make a little bit of money on a Saturday, Sunday afternoon when the football games are
on, and not put that much effort into it. So, once you’ve looked at the statistics,
you’ll then go to the market and you’ll want to see that the home favorite are at about
odds of about 1.8 or above. Typically, we prefer it to be around two,
because we’d like to be in a position where, if we just get 51% of our bets correct, then
we’re going to make money. So, if there at odds of 2.0 or above, that’s
a bonus. But you can take games where it’s 1.8, or
something like that. Because sometimes you’re going to get that
for particularly strong teams against particularly weak teams, and it doesn’t make it a bad bet. It just means that the risk to reward isn’t
as good as it could be. But anyway, once we find that you then place
the trade, you put on the bet, you put whatever stake you’re comfortable with, whether that
be 10 pound, five pound, a hundred pounds, 500, a thousand, whatever it is that you’re
comfortable with. You walk away and you come back at the end
of the game and hopefully you’ve collected your winnings. Now, you can’t just do this blindly. Like with any strategy out there, you can’t
sit there and say, this is a strong team playing against a weak team, so therefore this is
going to be the outcome. You have to look at the statistics that I’ve
told you. So, your match selection is going to be key
here and, obviously, then the in-play criteria’s also going to be key. But if you can get all of that correct, then
you’re going to have a strategy here that is going to pay you dividends for weeks and
months and years to come. Because really, the way these games play out,
they don’t change. The stronger team, as long as they’re on top,
they’re going to come out ahead of the game at least 60 to 70% of the time. And as long as we have our reward to risk
ratio, as I said, which is about one to one, then you’re going to come out making money,
as simple as that. As traders, sometimes we think that complicated
is better, but this is an instance and an example where complicated really isn’t better,
and something really simple and straight forward is going to make you money. Does that make sense? What we’ll do now is let’s jump across to
a live trade and let’s walk through a live trade so you really know what this looks like
and the sorts of statistics that we’re looking at. Okay, so we’re looking at a game between Wiccan
Wanderers and Doncaster Rovers. What I’m going to do is quickly put on the
trade here, then I’ll talk to you about all of the statistics that are helping me make
the decisions to put on the trade. I’m going to put on the trade here anyway,
just so that we can make sure that we get it on in case a goal is scored just as I’m
talking to you, which has happened once or twice before as I’ve been recording these
videos, so I’ve learned my lesson, to put on the trade and then talk you through the
stats. So, we’ll just give that a second to be taken. I’ve put it in there at 3.0. You can see the spread is 2.94 to three, and
was just 3.1, but if I give it a moment or two that should be taken. Okay, there you see, so that trade has been
taken out. All right, so what are we looking at? Why do I like this trade? Let’s start by taking a look at the pre-match
stats. So, looking at the pre-match stats here, we
can see that Wiccan Wanderers are first in the table, Doncaster Rovers are all the way
down that in 12th. So, there’s a big gap. There’s a big difference in the quality of
the teams. If we take a closer look at their home and
they’re away form, we can see that Wiccan Wanderers have got 2.56 points per game. Whereas, Doncaster Rovers are only at 1.2
points per game. What that tells us is that Wiccan win the
majority of their games at home and Doncaster, they basically struggle to win away from home. If we take a little bit of a closer look at
their form, home in away, Wiccan Wanderers have had all season, they’ve had two draws
at home and the rest have all been wins. You can see one-nil, one-nil, one-nil, three-one,
four-three, three-two, two-nil. So, they do seem to be able to eke out results,
which is fantastic. If we then take a look at Doncaster Rovers,
they’ve got a couple of draws, so they’ve managed to, nil-nil Ipswich, Coventry, they
lost to Oxford, they managed to draw at Rochdale, then they beat South End all the way down
at the bottom there, and are pretty poor team. So, that doesn’t really say much about Doncaster’s
ability, the fact that they can be nearly bottom of the table there. All in all, pretty convincing statistics to
say that nine times out of 10 or seven times out of 10, Wiccan Wanderers are going to go
on and win this game even though the score is nil-nil at half time. One of the other things that we can look at,
one of the other stats I like to look at is how many times have the home favorite been
at home, and have they been drawing or losing, and how often have they been able to get goals
in the second half? And as you can see here, [inaudible 00:11:05],
Peterborough, Portsmouth, [inaudible 00:00:11:09], South End and Bolton. So, more than half of their games there, they’ve
had goals in the second half, which bodes well for what we’re looking to do here. All in all, the pre-match stats really lineup
for us to go in and put a trade on the favorite to win here. And, as I said, one of the other things is
that we got in there at 3.0, which is fantastic. Oh, Doncaster have just had a man sent off,
which, as you can see, one of the great things is it automatically pushes the price in our
favor there, which is fantastic. All right, so going back to… What was I saying here? Yeah, so the fact that the Whickham are above
Doncaster and we got odds at 3.0, what we then have to ourselves is, if this match plays
out a hundred times, how many of those times do Wiccan Wanderers go on and win? And based on the statistics, you would say
60, 70 times out of a hundred, they go on to win the game. At odds of 3.0, so our risk is one for a reward
of two. That means that if that plays out that many
times, even if we win, if we lose 30 times out of a hundred, we’re still going to make
money. Even if we lost 50 times out of a hundred,
at those odds, you’d still make money. But then of course we want to go and look
at the in-play statistics, and what I’ve got here is… I look at the match meter. If we clicked in here, I won’t do this right
now, but you would see that what the match meter does is basically an amalgamation of
all of the statistics. So, you’ve got the possession stats, the shots
on target, shots off target, dangerous attacks, all of that good stuff is put into one particular
number, which just basically makes it easy for me to be able to scroll up and down and
see what’s going on in the various games, who’s on top, and all of that good stuff. There are other websites out there, like Soccerway,
that you can use, which gives you other in-play statistics. But this is a site that I wanted to put together
for myself just because it brings everything together in one nice place, which is fantastic. But anyway, that is that for the game at the
moment. As we can see, it’s nil-nil. Doncaster have just had a man sent off, which
bodes well for our possessions. Automatically push the odds down to 2.0 as
you can see there, from 3.2. Now, if I were trading this game, I would
look at laying some of my liability here, but obviously I want to show you how the strategy
that I’ve taught you and this video works. So I’m going to go ahead and hold this bet
to this trade and I’ll come back to you at the end of the game and talk to you about
how it went. Okay, so we’ve come to the end of the game,
and as you can see, Wiccan went on and did win the game. We left it a little bit late and so we had
to rely on a 92nd minute penalty. So, the second minute of injury time there
for us to get the win but, to be honest with you, Wiccan were on top the whole time and
it’s a miracle that Doncaster held on that long. And if you rely on the statistics, if we look
at the form and we follow the strategy, then it really doesn’t matter when the goal is
scored, and you will find that there are a number of goals that are scored very, very
late on. A couple of weeks ago I had one with Fleetwood
Town where they left until the 88th, 89th minute to go on and get the win. As I said, it doesn’t matter. The strategy, the approach that we take here
is going to bring you out ahead of the game more often than not. And sometimes, it does take teams that little
while to break other teams down, fatigue sets in and things like that, which is why obviously
you get the late goal. But the important thing is is that obviously
we did get the late goal and we went on to win the game and win the bet or win the trade. If we take a very quick look at the Betfair
screen here. So, you can see that we got our profits, 196
pounds profit for, if you remember, 100 pounds risks. So, a two to one reward to risk ratio, which
isn’t too bad at all. That’s obviously done… That says start time three o’clock but obviously
it was a little bit later than that, wasn’t it? That’s just the start time of the game. We got in there just after four o’clock, so
little more than an hour there, or a little less than an hour rather to make that money. And, as I’ve said before, obviously you’re
not necessarily just going to be trading one or betting on one game at a time. You can be looking at many different matches
at the same time. Sometimes you might get two or three matches
set up which meet your criteria. You can take absolutely all of them, and then
obviously you multiply these results by two or three. Sure, you are going to get losses. This isn’t a foolproof strategy. You’re not going to win every single trade,
but you are definitely going to win more often than not. So that about wraps up this video. If you have any questions at all, please feel
free to post it beneath the video and I’ll answer it as quickly as I can. Sometimes, it takes a little longer than others. As you can imagine, I get hundreds of emails
and comments and things like that each and every day. So, if I don’t get around to it as quickly
as you would like, just be a little bit patient with me and I will get there in the end. If you like what you saw in this video, then
you really should check out my short video course into football trading, where I take
you from knowing very, very little about the markets to being able to trade a strategy
with a lot of consistency. It’s a strategy that’s not too different to
this one here. There are just a few nuances to it that would
allow you to mitigate your risk, a few things that you can do if the game were to go against
you or something like that. But the course is absolutely free, so there’s
a link beneath the video. Click that link there, sign up to the course. I promise you you won’t forget it. That will also allow you to get a bunch of
other strategies that I’ll send you that I think you’ll really like if you’re interested
in this kind of trading here. As I said, I’ve been trading for 15 years
now. I’m trading in the football markets for the
past three years, and I can honestly tell you I enjoy this way more than any other kind
of trading. And my consistency and profitability is way
more than trading other markets. So, for something, if you come from the [inaudible]
background or something like that, give it a go, give it a chance. I promise you, you will not regret it. Before I go, again, remember, subscribe, hit
the bell so that you get all of the notifications on YouTube. Otherwise, I will see you in the next video. Take care now, and happy trading.